Detection of risk clusters for deaths due to tuberculosis specifically in areas of southern Brazil where the disease was supposedly a non-problem

Luana Seles Alves, Danielle Talita Dos Santos, Marcos Augusto Moraes Arcoverde, Thais Zamboni Berra, Luiz Henrique Arroyo, Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos, Ivaneliza Simionato De Assis, Ana Angélica Rêgo De Queiroz, Jonas Boldini Alonso, Josilene Dália Alves, Marcela Paschoal Popolin, Mellina Yamamura, Juliane De Almeida Crispim, Elma Mathias Dessunti, Pedro Fredemir Palha, Francisco Chiaraval-Neto, Carla Nunes, Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio

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Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the infectious disease that kills the most people worldwide. The use of geoepidemiological techniques to demonstrate the dynamics of the disease in vulnerable communities is essential for its control. Thus, this study aimed to identify risk clusters for TB deaths and their variation over time. Methods: This ecological study considered cases of TB deaths in residents of Londrina, Brazil between 2008 and 2015. We used standard, isotonic scan statistics for the detection of spatial risk clusters. The Poisson discrete model was adopted with the high and low rates option used for 10, 30 and 50% of the population at risk, with circular format windows and 999 replications considered the maximum cluster size. Getis-Ord Gi∗(Gi∗) statistics were used to diagnose hotspot areas for TB mortality. Kernel density was used to identify whether the clusters changed over time. Results: For the standard version, spatial risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 4.9 (95% CI 2.6-9.4), 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-5.7), respectively. For the isotonic spatial statistics, the risk clusters for 10, 30 and 50% of the exposed population were 2.8 (95% CI: 1.5-5.1), 2.7 (95% CI: 1.6-4.4), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9), respectively. All risk clusters were located in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Additionally, through Gi∗, hotspot areas were identified in the eastern and western regions. Conclusions: There were important risk areas for tuberculosis mortality in the eastern and northern regions of the municipality. Risk clusters for tuberculosis deaths were observed in areas where TB mortality was supposedly a non-problem. The isotonic and Gi∗statistics were more sensitive for the detection of clusters in areas with a low number of cases; however, their applicability in public health is still restricted.

Original languageEnglish
Article number628
JournalBMC Infectious Diseases
Volume19
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 17 Jul 2019

Keywords

  • Cluster detection
  • Death
  • Isotonic regression
  • Scan statistics
  • Spatial analysis
  • Tuberculosis

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