Peak Load Forecasting in Electrical Deregulated Market Environment - The Dynamic Tariffs

Svetlana Chemetova, Paulo Santos, Armando J. Pires

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Load peak forecasting (LPF) is an important decision tool in a deregulated market in order to help the operator to choose the best efficient mix production for the next day, satisfying the demand. The construction of the first built price of energy (€/MWh) is made until 11 p.m. of the day before. For example, in the case of MIBEL (Iberian Electricity Market), there is one starting session during the day before and seven-intra sessions during the current day. The concept of the Dynamic Tariffs (DT) is bringing to the low voltage consumer a certain 'dynamic' in the energy prices, (which are indexed to the MIBEL prices), during several hours of the day instead of a traditional fixed price of energy. For peak load time the price increases and for the empty hours the price is cheaper. The result of these actions is to shift peak load consumption to the low-peak periods. In this paper, the results of the forecasts were evaluated, simulating their effects in the environment of DT and comparing them with actions that would be taken knowing in advance the real diagram of the consumption. This paper presents a methodology for 24 hours forecasting loads and it was incorporated in a dynamic tariff environment. The model was applied to a case study. The active power data was collected in EDP Distribution System in the city of Lisbon.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings: IECON 2019 - 45th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
Pages2227-2232
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781728148786
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2019
Event45th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, IECON 2019 - Lisbon, Portugal
Duration: 14 Oct 201917 Oct 2019

Publication series

NameIECON Proceedings (Industrial Electronics Conference)
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
Volume2019-October
ISSN (Print)1553-572X

Conference

Conference45th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, IECON 2019
CountryPortugal
CityLisbon
Period14/10/1917/10/19

Keywords

  • dynamic tariffs
  • input vector
  • load forecasting
  • Peak power
  • regressive methodology
  • smart grids

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